by It’s Tuesday morning. You’ve just finished your first coffee of the day, casually scrolling through your emails, when you see it. The subject line from Sales reads, “Forecast Update – Exciting Growth Ahead!” You raise an eyebrow. Maybe it’s another modest uptick. But as you open the spreadsheet attached, your heart skips a beat. A 30% increase. Not next year. Not even in six months. They’re saying sales will surge in the next few months. And just like that, your week changes direction.
You scroll through the document, looking for the logic behind the leap. A new marketing campaign? A confirmed big order? A product relaunch? But all you see is the number. No explanations. No new customer acquisition plan. No pricing change. Nothing. Just optimism. And while optimism is great for company morale, it’s not a good enough reason to trigger an entire shift in supply chain planning.
So now, you’re left in the hot seat. Because you’re supply chain. The part of the business that doesn’t get to say “let’s just see what happens.” You’re the one who has to make it happen—or brace for the fallout when things don’t go as forecasted. And right now, you’re not just managing uncertainty. You’re staring straight into a potential mess. One you didn’t ask for but are expected to clean up if it goes south.
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Table of Contents
Forecasting Fantasies and the Reality Check
Let’s be real. A 30% increase in sales in a few months is not impossible. But it’s a tall order. For most businesses, that kind of jump is either a result of a new channel, an exclusive distributor, a seasonal boom, or a game-changing promotion. But if none of that is happening, what are we even doing?
You start digging, asking around, checking with the sales reps. You phrase it nicely, of course. “Just wondering what’s driving the forecast?” The answers are vague. “We feel confident.” “The market is picking up.” “We’ve got a good vibe this quarter.” And while it’s fine for Sales to chase dreams, you’re the one who needs to turn those dreams into pallets, trucks, and factory schedules.
And let’s not forget the cost. Ordering 30% more raw material means more capital tied up. Ramping up capacity means scheduling overtime, maybe even talking to external suppliers. There are real financial risks if that forecast doesn’t come through. You could end up with idle capacity, bloated inventories, or worse—having to write off products that don’t sell. The pressure is on, and the clock is ticking.
Supply Chain’s Double Bind: Damned If You Do, Damned If You Don’t
Here’s the paradox. If you believe the forecast and it turns out to be wrong, everyone turns to you: “Why did we produce so much?” If you don’t believe it and demand ends up real, you’ll still be blamed: “Why weren’t we ready?” Welcome to the world of supply chain, where being right is rarely celebrated, and being wrong—whether your fault or not—is always noticed.
You could go the passive-aggressive route. “Fine. Let’s produce what they want. And when it sits in the warehouse, let’s send them the bill.” But we both know that’s not helpful. That’s not leadership. The better route is to engage. Not just to push back, but to align. To understand. To challenge. And if needed, to protect the business from itself.
Because your job isn’t just to execute supply plans. Your real job—your value—is being the bridge between what the business wants to happen and what the business can realistically support. That means asking the tough questions. Demanding visibility. Offering options. And yes, sometimes saying no, but with data and clarity.
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The Quiet Power of Scenario Planning
One of the smartest things you can do right now is to turn that one big scary forecast into a few clear scenarios. Don’t just build a single plan based on the 30% spike. Break it down. What does a 10% increase look like? What about 20%? Where’s your break-even point for taking the risk? What’s the minimum you need to do now to stay agile if the sales jump does happen?
Talk to your procurement team. Can they get flexible contracts or staggered deliveries? Talk to production. How fast can you scale up if needed? And talk to warehousing. Do you even have space for a 30% overstock if things don’t go as planned?
By planning in tiers, you give yourself breathing room. You’re not saying “no” to Sales. You’re saying “yes, but let’s do it smart.” You prepare for growth without gambling the company’s cash flow. And when the inevitable question comes—“Why aren’t we just producing more?”—you’ll have the answers backed by numbers and risks mapped out like a pro.
Calling Sales to the Table Without Starting a War
Now comes the hardest part: the conversation. You need to bring Sales in. Not to argue. Not to accuse. But to align. Because believe it or not, they also don’t want a failed forecast. They just don’t always think about the chain reaction their optimism sets off.
Frame it as a partnership. “We’re excited about the growth forecast. To support it effectively, we need a clearer understanding of what’s driving the numbers. Are there new accounts? Marketing pushes? Distribution expansions? Anything concrete helps us plan more precisely.”
If they dodge the specifics, push gently. “To make this work without adding unnecessary cost or risk, we need to know what’s changing versus the previous months. Otherwise, we might either overcommit or underdeliver.”
You might even consider inviting them to join your scenario planning session. When Sales sees how many variables you manage—inventory levels, supplier lead times, labor capacity—they might better appreciate why a 30% increase isn’t something you just add to cart overnight.
Building a Risk Mitigation Strategy That Doesn’t Burn You Later
You don’t need to bet the whole operation on a forecast you don’t trust. But you also can’t ignore it. That’s where a good mitigation strategy becomes your lifeline. Maybe you ramp up just part of the capacity and hold the rest in reserve. Maybe you build buffer inventory for fast-moving items but hold off on the slow ones.
And document everything. Every call, every assumption, every risk flag you raised. Not to play politics, but to protect your decisions. Because if it turns out that Sales was overly ambitious and the business takes a hit, your leadership will want to know who asked the right questions and who blindly followed orders.
Over time, this kind of diligence earns you credibility. It shows you’re not just the back office. You’re a strategic function. You see the whole board. And you play to win—but not recklessly.
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Learning to Thrive in the Uncertainty, Not Just Survive It
This kind of situation isn’t a one-off. Sales will always have ambition. And supply chain will always need to translate that ambition into operational plans. The key isn’t to avoid these moments, but to build the muscles to handle them better each time.
That means building relationships, not silos. It means asking for visibility into pipeline opportunities earlier. It means creating cross-functional routines where forecasts aren’t just emailed but discussed. It means building digital tools that show real-time impact of forecast changes.
And more than anything, it means building a culture where being the voice of caution isn’t seen as resistance, but as resilience.
Final Thoughts as You Refill That Coffee Cup
So here you are. Still staring at that 30% increase. Still no clear action plan from Sales. But now, you’re not frozen. You’ve got a plan. You’ve got the questions ready. You’ve got scenarios built. You’ve started the conversations. And while it still feels uncomfortable, it doesn’t feel out of control anymore.
That’s the heart of supply chain leadership. Navigating chaos without becoming chaotic. Challenging assumptions without becoming confrontational. Aligning ambition with execution without killing innovation.
Because in the end, your job is not to fight Sales. Your job is to ensure that the company’s promises to customers don’t become apologies. And sometimes, that means being the only one in the room brave enough to ask, “How exactly are we going to do this?”
And trust me, that’s not just operational excellence. That’s business leadership.
I hope you find it helpful!
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